McCain's Electoral College Problem

I recently discovered a very cool site if you're an election junkie like myself. Check out:

http://www.270towin.com/

This is an interactive electoral college map that allows you to setup various scenarios for the Democratic and Republican candidates, not just for the Presidential election, they also have a similar function for Senate contests. Of course I tried to be as objective as possible, but I see more "toss up" states that have traditionally gone Republican than traditional Democratic states. Here is what my map looks like as of today, May 30th, based on my studying of recent polls, recent state voting history and patterns, and some good old fashioned guesswork:

Solid Obama States
WA, OR, CA, MN, IA, IL, DE, MD, PA, NY, CT, RI, MA, VT, ME, and DC

Total electoral college votes solidly for Obama = 228

Solid McCain States
ID, UT, AZ, WY, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, AR, LA, KY, TN, MS, AL, GA, SC, WV, FL

Total electoral college votes solidly for McCain = 187

Toss Up States Dems Must Defend
WI, MI, NH, MO

Total electoral votes Dems must defend = 42

Toss Up States Republicans Must Defend
MT, NV, CO, NM, IN, OH, VA, NC

Total electoral votes Republicans must defend = 81


Now, trying to estimate which way these toss up states go will be done hundreds if not thousands of times between now and election night. Again, right now, here is how I see these races going and which states we might have to stay up past midnight EST before we'll know the results of:

Wisconsin: I believe this state stays blue. Wisconsonites love a populist, and Obama did very well in the state during the primary. Pencil WI into Obama's category.

Michigan: This is one of a couple of states that I believe won't be decided until late in the evening. The Republicans view MI as one of their best shots at winning a "blue" state, and I believe they'll throw a lot of resources into it this fall. In the end, I'll give this one to McCain (especially if he either gets Romney to campaign hard for him, or even selects him as his VP).

New Hampshire: These traditionally very independent minded folks have welcomed McCain as almost like a native son. He is well liked in the state, and with the Dems focusing on some higher electoral prizes this fall, it would not surprise me to see them cede this one over. I'll give McCain NH.

Missouri: This is one of the states that probably will not be decided until late. I think in the end, strong support from the popular Claire McKaskill and Kathleen Sebelius (the popular Governor of neighboring KS) will help Obama. He will carry the KC and StL areas heavily and get just enough of the rural vote to squeak one out. I'll give this one to the Obama camp.

Montana: Yes, most people probably would not consider Montana a toss up, but if you look at their recent voting trends, this is a state the Dems can win in. I think ultimately it will go to McCain, but not by as much as many would expect.

Nevada: Bush narrowly won the state in 2004, but with McCain's name recognition, hailing from neighboring Arizona, I believe gives him a stronger footing in the state than Bush had. I'll leave this one red for the fall and line it up on McCain's side.

Colorado: This is one of the states the Dems believe they have the best chance at winning. They will spend a great deal of money in the state not just for Obama, but also in hopes that high turnout for Obama will help them claim departing Senator Wayne Allard's seat in the fall as well. Colorado could be disastrous for the Republicans this fall. I'll give this one to Obama.

New Mexico: Another state that Bush carried by a slim margin in 2004. The state has turned more blue since 2004 and with the backing of the extremely popular Governor, Bill Richardson, and possibly even VP nominee Bill Richardson, I believe Obama can and will claim NM.

Indiana: This state has been pretty solidly Republican for a time now, but Obama has a few things going for him. His staunch opposition to NAFTA will help him in the metro areas, and his name recognition in the region will help him with the rural voters. This one could go late into the night as well, but I believe Obama will eventually win it.

Ohio: I think a lot of what will determine the outcome in Ohio is how hard the state political machines work, particularly the Democratic machine, which has been solidly behind Clinton. Will the state party go all out for the Obama ticket? In the end, it might not matter as McCain is viewed quite favorably in the state. And hey, if Bush can win it after the Iraq fiasco started, I don't feel comfortable moving it this cycle. I'll give this one to McCain.

Virginia: This is another state that, like Colorado, looks to be bad news for the Republicans in the fall. Even without Obama having the mantle as official Democratic nominee, he is tied or ahead in most polls coming from the state. I think this is the election VA goes blue. Give this one to Obama.

North Carolina: With a strong African American turn out, this state may take a while to decide. However, it is a little more "southern" than Virginia in their voting, even in the recent past, so this one will be a more difficult for Obama. I think it depends on how much money the Dems put into NC. If they really try to take it, I believe they could, but I think their focus will be on flipping CO and VA, so we'll give NC to McCain. For now.

There you have it. When the dust settles and we open our papers the morning after the election, the headlines should read, President-Elect Obama garners electoral college victory: 287-251!

And this, after allowing those "big states" that Democrats "must win" (according to Hillary) going to McCain.