That's right, folks, Feral Donkey is breaking one of the biggest stories of this election cycle; that Barack Obama has ties to the largest lobbying group in the country! No, it's not the auto industry, the NRA, big oil, or big tobacco. No, this lobby dwarfs all of these put together. Who is he beholden to, and owe much of his political success to? Big America.
According to the latest FEC statistics (http://www.fec.gov), the Obama camp has raised approximately $264.5 million dollars. In addition, 46% of his total haul has come in the form of contributions of $200 or less. Exactly $0 has come from PAC money. The sheer volume of money is impressive enough, but when you also take into consideration the fact that over 1.5 million individuals have donated to his campaign, well, that is just amazing.
By contrast, Obama's opponent, John McCain, has struggled to build his war chest. He has raised a total of about $89.2 million dollars, or roughly 1/3 the amount Obama has raised. About 31% of his total purse came from $200 or less donations, meaning more of McCain's backers have most likely maxed out on their contribution limit. Even in traditionally reliable Republican states like Texas, McCain is getting his clock cleaned when it comes to donations when compared to Obama. PAC money accounts for roughly $1 million of McCain's total to date.
What does all of this mean? In a word, change. You can't take money out of politics. Money is the life blood that keeps our government running. What you can try to keep out of politics is tainted money. Money that comes with strings attached. Barack Obama recognizes that he will not be able to change the culture of Washington until the people running it are free to do their jobs without fear of retribution from corporate benefactors.
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Sunday, June 8, 2008
(Generation) X + Y = W
X+Y=W
That should be one of the mantras of the Obama campaign. It is a mathematical equation that will lead to victory in November. During the protracted Democratic primary, pundits had endlessly sliced and diced the electorate up into varying demographic groups, each one seemingly more important than the previous one.
From my perspective, the biggest demographic to watch this fall isn't male versus female, or even black/minority versus white. No, the real political war will be intergenerational. The Obama camp's loyal foot soldiers are those from Generation Y, while McCain can claim the backing of the majority of the Greatest generation. Neither of these group backings should be surprising to anybody.
The biggest fight then, will be for the votes of the middle two generations, the baby boomers and Generation X. Again, dividing these folks up by their age, most polls show Obama with a lead for the Generation X vote, and McCain with a lead for the baby boomers. The intergenerational war between the boomers and Gen X will come to a head in November. These groups have already been clashing for a number of years, particularly in the private sector where boomers have been holding fast to the executive level jobs, while the X'ers have been trying to infiltrate the upper rungs of the corporate ladder.
I believe Obama will win in November by pulling together a broad coalition of Gen Y and X. The Greatest Generation had Truman and Kennedy. The boomers had Clinton. Obama is the voice of the next generations that will lead this country back to greatness.
That should be one of the mantras of the Obama campaign. It is a mathematical equation that will lead to victory in November. During the protracted Democratic primary, pundits had endlessly sliced and diced the electorate up into varying demographic groups, each one seemingly more important than the previous one.
From my perspective, the biggest demographic to watch this fall isn't male versus female, or even black/minority versus white. No, the real political war will be intergenerational. The Obama camp's loyal foot soldiers are those from Generation Y, while McCain can claim the backing of the majority of the Greatest generation. Neither of these group backings should be surprising to anybody.
The biggest fight then, will be for the votes of the middle two generations, the baby boomers and Generation X. Again, dividing these folks up by their age, most polls show Obama with a lead for the Generation X vote, and McCain with a lead for the baby boomers. The intergenerational war between the boomers and Gen X will come to a head in November. These groups have already been clashing for a number of years, particularly in the private sector where boomers have been holding fast to the executive level jobs, while the X'ers have been trying to infiltrate the upper rungs of the corporate ladder.
I believe Obama will win in November by pulling together a broad coalition of Gen Y and X. The Greatest Generation had Truman and Kennedy. The boomers had Clinton. Obama is the voice of the next generations that will lead this country back to greatness.
Thursday, June 5, 2008
Obama's Party
Wow, that's all I can say. Obviously I am jubilent at the end to this primary season. First, Barack claimed enough delegates Tuesday night to be declared the presumptive nominee, but Hillary's speech was anything but gracious with no hints of a concession. I was worried. I was worried that Hillary's folks would urge her to take this to the convention, especially when I heard the misguided chants of "Denver, Denver" at one point during her speech.
Thankfully, her advisors must have been telling her it is over. She had a couple of prominent supporters talking that way, including Ed Rendell, Barbara Boxer, and Charlie Rangel. So I would have been truly happy if we only had the news from last night that broke that Clinton would suspend her campaign on Saturday and endorse Obama. Possibly even better news broke today and has received little fanfare, and that is that the Democratic National Committee has announced they will no longer take money contributions from lobbyists or PAC's in DC. See the press release here:
http://democrats.org/a/2008/06/democratic_part_10.php
Why is this such a huge deal? Because it shows that the Democratic party is now the party of Barack Obama. It also shows Obama's committment to the change he preaches about on his campaign stops. Expect him to begin cleaning house within the DNC shortly as he takes the reigns of the party. As Barack is fond of saying, "one voice can change the world," but it must start small and build. First was his campaign that was funded by the American people, now it will be the Democratic party as a whole, and soon, hopefully, our entire government.
Obama supporters must really start contributing in droves to the DNC to help support Barack's message. As the lobbyists get booted from the DNC they will naturally flock to the Republicans so we should expect McCain's campaign coffers to begin bulging over the next few months. It is up to us to help Obama carry the change message forward. It begins with the DNC, and next up, is Washington.
Thankfully, her advisors must have been telling her it is over. She had a couple of prominent supporters talking that way, including Ed Rendell, Barbara Boxer, and Charlie Rangel. So I would have been truly happy if we only had the news from last night that broke that Clinton would suspend her campaign on Saturday and endorse Obama. Possibly even better news broke today and has received little fanfare, and that is that the Democratic National Committee has announced they will no longer take money contributions from lobbyists or PAC's in DC. See the press release here:
http://democrats.org/a/2008/06/democratic_part_10.php
Why is this such a huge deal? Because it shows that the Democratic party is now the party of Barack Obama. It also shows Obama's committment to the change he preaches about on his campaign stops. Expect him to begin cleaning house within the DNC shortly as he takes the reigns of the party. As Barack is fond of saying, "one voice can change the world," but it must start small and build. First was his campaign that was funded by the American people, now it will be the Democratic party as a whole, and soon, hopefully, our entire government.
Obama supporters must really start contributing in droves to the DNC to help support Barack's message. As the lobbyists get booted from the DNC they will naturally flock to the Republicans so we should expect McCain's campaign coffers to begin bulging over the next few months. It is up to us to help Obama carry the change message forward. It begins with the DNC, and next up, is Washington.
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
Triple Header
Political observers were treated to a triple header of sorts yesterday, as all three remaining candidates for President of the United States gave three very different speeches. One would be hard pressed to determine who had won what if you only went by the first few remarks of both McCain and Obama and took Clinton's speech in it's entirety. Let's break down what the three candidates had to say.
John McCain went first, using the big audience the Democratic primary would bring in to try to distance himself from Bush. His first comments, however, were directed squarely at Hillary Clinton supporters. In fact, one of the most telling lines of his speech was when he said that the pundits and party leaders had declared Obama his challenger, playing up to the incorrect assertion that somehow the primary was stolen from Clinton. He has undoubtedly heard the cries of some Clinton faithful that they will vote for McCain over Obama to spite the presumptive nominee and the party, and his pandering apparently knows no bounds. McCain's speech overall was quite poor in both substance and delivery. The only real blow he delivered to Obama, in my opinion, was when he decried him for willing to meet with foreign leaders but he hasn't setup a meeting with General Petreaus. This is something Obama must do in the coming months.
Next up came Hillary Clinton, speaking in what appeared to be an underground bunker of some kind. I also am to the point of wondering if Terry McAuliffe lives in our world or merely comes here to visit during campaign season. He not only introduced Clinton as the next President of the United States, but also was on The Daily Show and told Jon Stewart that they wouldn't mind if Obama was on the ticket with her. I digress. Clinton's speech was very confusing to me. In one breath she was calling for party unity to defeat the Republicans in the fall, and in the next breath she continued to justify not conceding the primary. News flash: We can't have party unity when one candidate and her supporters don't believe we have an official nominee.
There were conflicting reports all afternoon about whether Clinton would concede, admit and congratulate Obama on reaching the number of delegates necessary to secure the nomination, or possibly suspend her campaign. None of these happened last night. Even as polls closed in South Dakota and the networks were declaring Obama the official presumptive nominee, Clinton was stating she was not sure which path she would take now that all of the contests were over. In another telling moment, the crowd of enthusiastic supporters began chanting Denver, Denver, Denver, an indication that her biggest supporters want her to take the fight to the floor of the convention this August. It was also leaked by full time Clinton surrogate, and sometimes journalist, Andrea Mitchel, that Clinton wanted to meet with Obama privately as soon as possible. Perhaps as early as today when they are both scheduled to be in New York.
Obama, for his part, gave another powerfully charismatic speech in front of a raucous crowd in St. Paul. He declared himself the nominee only after first acknowledging Clinton and how she had inspired millions of voters across the country. He had not a bad word to say about her and in fact touted her as one of the reasons we will have universal health care in this country. He then pivoted to take McCain to task for embracing the policies of George Bush during the past few years, and especially during his campaign for President. Obama landed a couple of blows to McCain, the first coming as he said he honored the accomplishments of the Senator from Arizona, even if McCain did not honor his. The second was when Obama challenged McCain to start spending time in some of America's hardest hit cities rather than in Baghdad, so that he might have a better understanding of the issues facing ordinary Americans.
The presumptive nominee will get little time to savor his primary victory, as pundits and supporters will all be clamoring for him to pick his VP candidate, and of course everyone will have their own idea as to who that candidate shall be. I'll give you a hint as to my preference. It rhymes with Schmill Wichardson.
John McCain went first, using the big audience the Democratic primary would bring in to try to distance himself from Bush. His first comments, however, were directed squarely at Hillary Clinton supporters. In fact, one of the most telling lines of his speech was when he said that the pundits and party leaders had declared Obama his challenger, playing up to the incorrect assertion that somehow the primary was stolen from Clinton. He has undoubtedly heard the cries of some Clinton faithful that they will vote for McCain over Obama to spite the presumptive nominee and the party, and his pandering apparently knows no bounds. McCain's speech overall was quite poor in both substance and delivery. The only real blow he delivered to Obama, in my opinion, was when he decried him for willing to meet with foreign leaders but he hasn't setup a meeting with General Petreaus. This is something Obama must do in the coming months.
Next up came Hillary Clinton, speaking in what appeared to be an underground bunker of some kind. I also am to the point of wondering if Terry McAuliffe lives in our world or merely comes here to visit during campaign season. He not only introduced Clinton as the next President of the United States, but also was on The Daily Show and told Jon Stewart that they wouldn't mind if Obama was on the ticket with her. I digress. Clinton's speech was very confusing to me. In one breath she was calling for party unity to defeat the Republicans in the fall, and in the next breath she continued to justify not conceding the primary. News flash: We can't have party unity when one candidate and her supporters don't believe we have an official nominee.
There were conflicting reports all afternoon about whether Clinton would concede, admit and congratulate Obama on reaching the number of delegates necessary to secure the nomination, or possibly suspend her campaign. None of these happened last night. Even as polls closed in South Dakota and the networks were declaring Obama the official presumptive nominee, Clinton was stating she was not sure which path she would take now that all of the contests were over. In another telling moment, the crowd of enthusiastic supporters began chanting Denver, Denver, Denver, an indication that her biggest supporters want her to take the fight to the floor of the convention this August. It was also leaked by full time Clinton surrogate, and sometimes journalist, Andrea Mitchel, that Clinton wanted to meet with Obama privately as soon as possible. Perhaps as early as today when they are both scheduled to be in New York.
Obama, for his part, gave another powerfully charismatic speech in front of a raucous crowd in St. Paul. He declared himself the nominee only after first acknowledging Clinton and how she had inspired millions of voters across the country. He had not a bad word to say about her and in fact touted her as one of the reasons we will have universal health care in this country. He then pivoted to take McCain to task for embracing the policies of George Bush during the past few years, and especially during his campaign for President. Obama landed a couple of blows to McCain, the first coming as he said he honored the accomplishments of the Senator from Arizona, even if McCain did not honor his. The second was when Obama challenged McCain to start spending time in some of America's hardest hit cities rather than in Baghdad, so that he might have a better understanding of the issues facing ordinary Americans.
The presumptive nominee will get little time to savor his primary victory, as pundits and supporters will all be clamoring for him to pick his VP candidate, and of course everyone will have their own idea as to who that candidate shall be. I'll give you a hint as to my preference. It rhymes with Schmill Wichardson.
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
Emotional Dishonesty & Political Courage
I knew I would have to blog about this at some point after I began reading several comments from Clinton "supporters" who ardently exclaimed they would be voting for John McCain in November if Hillary was not the Democratic party nominee. After reading hundreds of comments and listening to quite a bit of audio commentary from these folks, they seem to fall into one of two camps.
The first camp are those people, mostly older women, who are truly devastated at the prospects of her getting so close to come up just short of the nomination. These women appear to be allowing their strong emotions to cloud their better political judgment. There was a time where I was a fan of John McCain, back in 2000 he seemed to be much less ideological and more inclined to listen to people who disagreed with him. How someone can go from debating about leaving the Republican party after Bush smeared him mercilessly (illegitimate black baby anyone?), to hugging Bush and courting the neocon loons on the right, is utterly inconceivable to me. That is not political courage, that is political expediency. By embracing McCain over Obama, this group is embracing the policies of the past 8 years over the change that both Obama and Clinton have sought.
The second group that is threatening to bolt to McCain this fall are the, how can I put this nicely, culturally insensitive. The less than politically correct crowd might even call them racists or bigots. Some of these folks have gone so far as to say out loud during interviews that they will not vote for Obama because of the color of his skin, or even because of his name. We can talk all we want about how far we have come as a nation in terms of racial healing and justice, but the exit polls from West Virginia and Kentucky (in particular) are honestly very sad and reflect the national tone from pre Civil Rights days.
I submit for your review two pieces of evidence. The first, to try and convince the first group to vote with their political brain and not their emotional hearts, I give you the website:
http://www.progressivepunch.com
This site ranks each Senate member on their Progressive thinking based on their actual voting record. How'd they do? Clinton scored a 91.11% progressive score, and ranked 20th out of 100 Senators. Obama scored a 88.54% and ranked 25th out of 100 Senators. John McCain? How about a 13.9% and a dismal ranking of 60th out of 100. Who shares your views? Also, these people who tend to say that Hillary got treated poorly by Obama or the DNC, have been asked repeatedly to show one example of such sexist behavior and to date I have seen none.
My second piece of evidence, aimed at the second group I discussed, is Ms. Harriet Christian. This older New York woman should be the next YouTube sensation (go ahead and search for her name on You Tube). She was the lady in the clip at the DNC rules and bylaws meeting from last Saturday stating the party is giving the nomination to a "inadequate black male." Her, Gerry Ferraro, and others like them are truly a waste of media coverage. To be honest, I would be very happy to NOT have these people's vote in November. Their way of thinking (pre Civil Rights) is the epitome of political past, which McCain represents.
Onward to the general, as we take victory tonight, let us celebrate a hard fought primary win. Tomorrow is a new fight, and for the good of the United States, indeed the world, it is a fight we must win.
The first camp are those people, mostly older women, who are truly devastated at the prospects of her getting so close to come up just short of the nomination. These women appear to be allowing their strong emotions to cloud their better political judgment. There was a time where I was a fan of John McCain, back in 2000 he seemed to be much less ideological and more inclined to listen to people who disagreed with him. How someone can go from debating about leaving the Republican party after Bush smeared him mercilessly (illegitimate black baby anyone?), to hugging Bush and courting the neocon loons on the right, is utterly inconceivable to me. That is not political courage, that is political expediency. By embracing McCain over Obama, this group is embracing the policies of the past 8 years over the change that both Obama and Clinton have sought.
The second group that is threatening to bolt to McCain this fall are the, how can I put this nicely, culturally insensitive. The less than politically correct crowd might even call them racists or bigots. Some of these folks have gone so far as to say out loud during interviews that they will not vote for Obama because of the color of his skin, or even because of his name. We can talk all we want about how far we have come as a nation in terms of racial healing and justice, but the exit polls from West Virginia and Kentucky (in particular) are honestly very sad and reflect the national tone from pre Civil Rights days.
I submit for your review two pieces of evidence. The first, to try and convince the first group to vote with their political brain and not their emotional hearts, I give you the website:
http://www.progressivepunch.com
This site ranks each Senate member on their Progressive thinking based on their actual voting record. How'd they do? Clinton scored a 91.11% progressive score, and ranked 20th out of 100 Senators. Obama scored a 88.54% and ranked 25th out of 100 Senators. John McCain? How about a 13.9% and a dismal ranking of 60th out of 100. Who shares your views? Also, these people who tend to say that Hillary got treated poorly by Obama or the DNC, have been asked repeatedly to show one example of such sexist behavior and to date I have seen none.
My second piece of evidence, aimed at the second group I discussed, is Ms. Harriet Christian. This older New York woman should be the next YouTube sensation (go ahead and search for her name on You Tube). She was the lady in the clip at the DNC rules and bylaws meeting from last Saturday stating the party is giving the nomination to a "inadequate black male." Her, Gerry Ferraro, and others like them are truly a waste of media coverage. To be honest, I would be very happy to NOT have these people's vote in November. Their way of thinking (pre Civil Rights) is the epitome of political past, which McCain represents.
Onward to the general, as we take victory tonight, let us celebrate a hard fought primary win. Tomorrow is a new fight, and for the good of the United States, indeed the world, it is a fight we must win.
Sunday, June 1, 2008
Five Stages of Grief
Sometimes one of my ideas comes to me in a flash of lucidness. Unfortunately for me, these flashes are too few and far between. One such flash, however, occured today while I watched coverage of the Puerto Rico primary. After Senator Clinton's crushing (and expected) victory in the commonwealth, out trotted a plethora of Clinton surrogates. A veratable who's who of political spin doctoring. Rather than being angry or even annoyed at the ludicrous attempts to paint Senator Clinton as still relevant, I found myself more sad than anything else. Sad for these people who obviously care a great deal for Clinton and who, for one reason or another, simply refuse to see the writing on the wall. In actuality, the writing has made it beyond the wall and covers the floor, the ceiling, the sky, the Great Wall, the Hubble telescope, and every other collection of cells in the Universe that is able to be written upon.
I was reminded of the now famous five stages of grief, introduced by Dr. Elisabeth Kubler-Ross, and it is very easy to see which stage any one of her supporters are in by the statements they make. I firmly believe it is up to Senator Clinton to heal the political wounds her supporters feel. As long as she continues to press forward and in a sense be trying to say the nomination has been "stolen" from her as she spews out her own fuzzy arithmetic of the popular vote total, I don't believe her hard core voters will move to the Obama campaign. Therefore, in an effort to unite the party, I present for your consideration, the five stages of grief and how we as Obama supporters can help the Clintonites move through them.
Stage 1: Denial & Isolation
You may recall that Senator Clinton herself, after the May 6th primaries in Indiana and North Carolina, recoiled from public view for as long as a Presidential candidate could conceivably do that. She cancelled all of her planned network tv appearances for the following morning. This was a perfect example of isolation. The folks that are still trying to argue that she has a path to the nomination are stuck in this denial stage. On Meet The Press this morning, Harold Ickes had an epic exchange with Tim Russert where when Tim asked him a question about what Clinton will do once Obama is declared the nominee, he very defensively retorted that (the Clinton camp) believe she will be the nominee. The way to move through this stage is for the rest of the party to coalesce behind Barack Obama and declare him the winner. Until that happens, there will be some Clinton holdouts clinging to their delusions.
Stage 2: Anger
I think this is where many of Clinton's hardcore supporters are in the stages of grief. While some may harbor anger that they keep inside, many are overtly expressing their anger. One example of this was the protest at the DNC rules and bylaws committee on Saturday. This group of protestors is so angry that they audibly booed when Obama's name was mentioned, and after the meeting were arguing and truly disgruntles for what amounts to 4 delegates. You can see even more hateful rhetoric from some Clinton supporters on a number of blogs as they gleefully talk of voting for McCain in November rather than vote for Obama (I will address the lunacy of this thought process in a future blog). They feel their leader, Hillary, has been wronged, and in order to move through this stage of grief it is going to take Hillary coming out forcefully and repeatedly to tell her followers that they must vote for Obama because he is clearly the best option on the table to run our country.
Stage 3: Bargaining
Once the anger dies down, the bargaining or negotiating kicks into high gear. One prominent Clinton supporter already has indicated she is in this stage of grief. Senator Feinstein of California last week told an interviewer that Barack Obama should select Clinton as his running mate. Many other Clinton supporters have hinted at such a "unity" ticket, but not many have openly come out and said that she deserves to be givin the VP nomination. If they do not encourage Obama to give her the VP nod, many will undoubtedly be campaigning for her to get a high level cabinet position or possibly the Senate majority position. The problem is that no matter what role she plays in government after the election, there will be a good chunk of her base that is unhappy with it. This leads us to the fourth stage of grief.
Stage 4: Depression
The final realization that Clinton will not be the nominee, and quite possibly not fill the perceived desired role in the next administration, will lead to a great deal of sadness among her supporters. Not many of them are in this stage right now, although I have seen some blog comments that indicate some of her voters have reached this stage. You'll know it when you see comments such as, "our party has a nominee," or "it looks like she's not going to pull it off." This stage could last quite a while for many of her biggest supporters, and in fact might last much longer than the general election does. For those who are able to cope with their depression and sadness, they may move to the final stage.
Stage 5: Acceptance
This is what we all hope the Clinton supporters can eventually work themselves towards. I don't believe many, if any, are at this culmination of the grief cycle yet, but as the summer goes on and possibly by the time of the convention in Denver, we might see more folks at this point.
Ultimately, Senator Clinton herself needs to move through these stages of grief before we can realistically expect her supporters to do the same. In the end, I believe as long as the majority of her voters are at least past the anger stage, they will see fit to vote for Obama in the fall. Our work as a party then, is to move these people past the bitterness and anger that many are feeling now. Angry Clinton voters equals either votes for McCain or voters staying home from the polls in November.
It's sad, really.
I was reminded of the now famous five stages of grief, introduced by Dr. Elisabeth Kubler-Ross, and it is very easy to see which stage any one of her supporters are in by the statements they make. I firmly believe it is up to Senator Clinton to heal the political wounds her supporters feel. As long as she continues to press forward and in a sense be trying to say the nomination has been "stolen" from her as she spews out her own fuzzy arithmetic of the popular vote total, I don't believe her hard core voters will move to the Obama campaign. Therefore, in an effort to unite the party, I present for your consideration, the five stages of grief and how we as Obama supporters can help the Clintonites move through them.
Stage 1: Denial & Isolation
You may recall that Senator Clinton herself, after the May 6th primaries in Indiana and North Carolina, recoiled from public view for as long as a Presidential candidate could conceivably do that. She cancelled all of her planned network tv appearances for the following morning. This was a perfect example of isolation. The folks that are still trying to argue that she has a path to the nomination are stuck in this denial stage. On Meet The Press this morning, Harold Ickes had an epic exchange with Tim Russert where when Tim asked him a question about what Clinton will do once Obama is declared the nominee, he very defensively retorted that (the Clinton camp) believe she will be the nominee. The way to move through this stage is for the rest of the party to coalesce behind Barack Obama and declare him the winner. Until that happens, there will be some Clinton holdouts clinging to their delusions.
Stage 2: Anger
I think this is where many of Clinton's hardcore supporters are in the stages of grief. While some may harbor anger that they keep inside, many are overtly expressing their anger. One example of this was the protest at the DNC rules and bylaws committee on Saturday. This group of protestors is so angry that they audibly booed when Obama's name was mentioned, and after the meeting were arguing and truly disgruntles for what amounts to 4 delegates. You can see even more hateful rhetoric from some Clinton supporters on a number of blogs as they gleefully talk of voting for McCain in November rather than vote for Obama (I will address the lunacy of this thought process in a future blog). They feel their leader, Hillary, has been wronged, and in order to move through this stage of grief it is going to take Hillary coming out forcefully and repeatedly to tell her followers that they must vote for Obama because he is clearly the best option on the table to run our country.
Stage 3: Bargaining
Once the anger dies down, the bargaining or negotiating kicks into high gear. One prominent Clinton supporter already has indicated she is in this stage of grief. Senator Feinstein of California last week told an interviewer that Barack Obama should select Clinton as his running mate. Many other Clinton supporters have hinted at such a "unity" ticket, but not many have openly come out and said that she deserves to be givin the VP nomination. If they do not encourage Obama to give her the VP nod, many will undoubtedly be campaigning for her to get a high level cabinet position or possibly the Senate majority position. The problem is that no matter what role she plays in government after the election, there will be a good chunk of her base that is unhappy with it. This leads us to the fourth stage of grief.
Stage 4: Depression
The final realization that Clinton will not be the nominee, and quite possibly not fill the perceived desired role in the next administration, will lead to a great deal of sadness among her supporters. Not many of them are in this stage right now, although I have seen some blog comments that indicate some of her voters have reached this stage. You'll know it when you see comments such as, "our party has a nominee," or "it looks like she's not going to pull it off." This stage could last quite a while for many of her biggest supporters, and in fact might last much longer than the general election does. For those who are able to cope with their depression and sadness, they may move to the final stage.
Stage 5: Acceptance
This is what we all hope the Clinton supporters can eventually work themselves towards. I don't believe many, if any, are at this culmination of the grief cycle yet, but as the summer goes on and possibly by the time of the convention in Denver, we might see more folks at this point.
Ultimately, Senator Clinton herself needs to move through these stages of grief before we can realistically expect her supporters to do the same. In the end, I believe as long as the majority of her voters are at least past the anger stage, they will see fit to vote for Obama in the fall. Our work as a party then, is to move these people past the bitterness and anger that many are feeling now. Angry Clinton voters equals either votes for McCain or voters staying home from the polls in November.
It's sad, really.
Friday, May 30, 2008
McCain's Electoral College Problem
I recently discovered a very cool site if you're an election junkie like myself. Check out:
http://www.270towin.com/
This is an interactive electoral college map that allows you to setup various scenarios for the Democratic and Republican candidates, not just for the Presidential election, they also have a similar function for Senate contests. Of course I tried to be as objective as possible, but I see more "toss up" states that have traditionally gone Republican than traditional Democratic states. Here is what my map looks like as of today, May 30th, based on my studying of recent polls, recent state voting history and patterns, and some good old fashioned guesswork:
Solid Obama States
WA, OR, CA, MN, IA, IL, DE, MD, PA, NY, CT, RI, MA, VT, ME, and DC
Total electoral college votes solidly for Obama = 228
Solid McCain States
ID, UT, AZ, WY, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, AR, LA, KY, TN, MS, AL, GA, SC, WV, FL
Total electoral college votes solidly for McCain = 187
Toss Up States Dems Must Defend
WI, MI, NH, MO
Total electoral votes Dems must defend = 42
Toss Up States Republicans Must Defend
MT, NV, CO, NM, IN, OH, VA, NC
Total electoral votes Republicans must defend = 81
Now, trying to estimate which way these toss up states go will be done hundreds if not thousands of times between now and election night. Again, right now, here is how I see these races going and which states we might have to stay up past midnight EST before we'll know the results of:
Wisconsin: I believe this state stays blue. Wisconsonites love a populist, and Obama did very well in the state during the primary. Pencil WI into Obama's category.
Michigan: This is one of a couple of states that I believe won't be decided until late in the evening. The Republicans view MI as one of their best shots at winning a "blue" state, and I believe they'll throw a lot of resources into it this fall. In the end, I'll give this one to McCain (especially if he either gets Romney to campaign hard for him, or even selects him as his VP).
New Hampshire: These traditionally very independent minded folks have welcomed McCain as almost like a native son. He is well liked in the state, and with the Dems focusing on some higher electoral prizes this fall, it would not surprise me to see them cede this one over. I'll give McCain NH.
Missouri: This is one of the states that probably will not be decided until late. I think in the end, strong support from the popular Claire McKaskill and Kathleen Sebelius (the popular Governor of neighboring KS) will help Obama. He will carry the KC and StL areas heavily and get just enough of the rural vote to squeak one out. I'll give this one to the Obama camp.
Montana: Yes, most people probably would not consider Montana a toss up, but if you look at their recent voting trends, this is a state the Dems can win in. I think ultimately it will go to McCain, but not by as much as many would expect.
Nevada: Bush narrowly won the state in 2004, but with McCain's name recognition, hailing from neighboring Arizona, I believe gives him a stronger footing in the state than Bush had. I'll leave this one red for the fall and line it up on McCain's side.
Colorado: This is one of the states the Dems believe they have the best chance at winning. They will spend a great deal of money in the state not just for Obama, but also in hopes that high turnout for Obama will help them claim departing Senator Wayne Allard's seat in the fall as well. Colorado could be disastrous for the Republicans this fall. I'll give this one to Obama.
New Mexico: Another state that Bush carried by a slim margin in 2004. The state has turned more blue since 2004 and with the backing of the extremely popular Governor, Bill Richardson, and possibly even VP nominee Bill Richardson, I believe Obama can and will claim NM.
Indiana: This state has been pretty solidly Republican for a time now, but Obama has a few things going for him. His staunch opposition to NAFTA will help him in the metro areas, and his name recognition in the region will help him with the rural voters. This one could go late into the night as well, but I believe Obama will eventually win it.
Ohio: I think a lot of what will determine the outcome in Ohio is how hard the state political machines work, particularly the Democratic machine, which has been solidly behind Clinton. Will the state party go all out for the Obama ticket? In the end, it might not matter as McCain is viewed quite favorably in the state. And hey, if Bush can win it after the Iraq fiasco started, I don't feel comfortable moving it this cycle. I'll give this one to McCain.
Virginia: This is another state that, like Colorado, looks to be bad news for the Republicans in the fall. Even without Obama having the mantle as official Democratic nominee, he is tied or ahead in most polls coming from the state. I think this is the election VA goes blue. Give this one to Obama.
North Carolina: With a strong African American turn out, this state may take a while to decide. However, it is a little more "southern" than Virginia in their voting, even in the recent past, so this one will be a more difficult for Obama. I think it depends on how much money the Dems put into NC. If they really try to take it, I believe they could, but I think their focus will be on flipping CO and VA, so we'll give NC to McCain. For now.
There you have it. When the dust settles and we open our papers the morning after the election, the headlines should read, President-Elect Obama garners electoral college victory: 287-251!
And this, after allowing those "big states" that Democrats "must win" (according to Hillary) going to McCain.
http://www.270towin.com/
This is an interactive electoral college map that allows you to setup various scenarios for the Democratic and Republican candidates, not just for the Presidential election, they also have a similar function for Senate contests. Of course I tried to be as objective as possible, but I see more "toss up" states that have traditionally gone Republican than traditional Democratic states. Here is what my map looks like as of today, May 30th, based on my studying of recent polls, recent state voting history and patterns, and some good old fashioned guesswork:
Solid Obama States
WA, OR, CA, MN, IA, IL, DE, MD, PA, NY, CT, RI, MA, VT, ME, and DC
Total electoral college votes solidly for Obama = 228
Solid McCain States
ID, UT, AZ, WY, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, AR, LA, KY, TN, MS, AL, GA, SC, WV, FL
Total electoral college votes solidly for McCain = 187
Toss Up States Dems Must Defend
WI, MI, NH, MO
Total electoral votes Dems must defend = 42
Toss Up States Republicans Must Defend
MT, NV, CO, NM, IN, OH, VA, NC
Total electoral votes Republicans must defend = 81
Now, trying to estimate which way these toss up states go will be done hundreds if not thousands of times between now and election night. Again, right now, here is how I see these races going and which states we might have to stay up past midnight EST before we'll know the results of:
Wisconsin: I believe this state stays blue. Wisconsonites love a populist, and Obama did very well in the state during the primary. Pencil WI into Obama's category.
Michigan: This is one of a couple of states that I believe won't be decided until late in the evening. The Republicans view MI as one of their best shots at winning a "blue" state, and I believe they'll throw a lot of resources into it this fall. In the end, I'll give this one to McCain (especially if he either gets Romney to campaign hard for him, or even selects him as his VP).
New Hampshire: These traditionally very independent minded folks have welcomed McCain as almost like a native son. He is well liked in the state, and with the Dems focusing on some higher electoral prizes this fall, it would not surprise me to see them cede this one over. I'll give McCain NH.
Missouri: This is one of the states that probably will not be decided until late. I think in the end, strong support from the popular Claire McKaskill and Kathleen Sebelius (the popular Governor of neighboring KS) will help Obama. He will carry the KC and StL areas heavily and get just enough of the rural vote to squeak one out. I'll give this one to the Obama camp.
Montana: Yes, most people probably would not consider Montana a toss up, but if you look at their recent voting trends, this is a state the Dems can win in. I think ultimately it will go to McCain, but not by as much as many would expect.
Nevada: Bush narrowly won the state in 2004, but with McCain's name recognition, hailing from neighboring Arizona, I believe gives him a stronger footing in the state than Bush had. I'll leave this one red for the fall and line it up on McCain's side.
Colorado: This is one of the states the Dems believe they have the best chance at winning. They will spend a great deal of money in the state not just for Obama, but also in hopes that high turnout for Obama will help them claim departing Senator Wayne Allard's seat in the fall as well. Colorado could be disastrous for the Republicans this fall. I'll give this one to Obama.
New Mexico: Another state that Bush carried by a slim margin in 2004. The state has turned more blue since 2004 and with the backing of the extremely popular Governor, Bill Richardson, and possibly even VP nominee Bill Richardson, I believe Obama can and will claim NM.
Indiana: This state has been pretty solidly Republican for a time now, but Obama has a few things going for him. His staunch opposition to NAFTA will help him in the metro areas, and his name recognition in the region will help him with the rural voters. This one could go late into the night as well, but I believe Obama will eventually win it.
Ohio: I think a lot of what will determine the outcome in Ohio is how hard the state political machines work, particularly the Democratic machine, which has been solidly behind Clinton. Will the state party go all out for the Obama ticket? In the end, it might not matter as McCain is viewed quite favorably in the state. And hey, if Bush can win it after the Iraq fiasco started, I don't feel comfortable moving it this cycle. I'll give this one to McCain.
Virginia: This is another state that, like Colorado, looks to be bad news for the Republicans in the fall. Even without Obama having the mantle as official Democratic nominee, he is tied or ahead in most polls coming from the state. I think this is the election VA goes blue. Give this one to Obama.
North Carolina: With a strong African American turn out, this state may take a while to decide. However, it is a little more "southern" than Virginia in their voting, even in the recent past, so this one will be a more difficult for Obama. I think it depends on how much money the Dems put into NC. If they really try to take it, I believe they could, but I think their focus will be on flipping CO and VA, so we'll give NC to McCain. For now.
There you have it. When the dust settles and we open our papers the morning after the election, the headlines should read, President-Elect Obama garners electoral college victory: 287-251!
And this, after allowing those "big states" that Democrats "must win" (according to Hillary) going to McCain.
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